US pushes to weaken IMO emissions plan
The United States and Saudi Arabia aim to dilute the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, which was provisionally adopted in April 2025 to cut shipping’s 3% share of global emissions. The debate will resume at closed-door talks in London in early September, with five proposals on the table, including a Liberian plan that could halve emissions by 2050. Climate ministers and NGOs warn the move risks missing 2023-agreed targets of 20% reduction by 2030 and 70% by 2040.
The United States and Saudi Arabia are expected to push for a weaker version of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF) at closed-door talks in London in early September. Shipping, which accounts for 3% of global emissions, relies heavily on dirty bunker fuels. The NZF, agreed provisionally in April 2025, sets emissions-reduction targets for shipowners and couples them with financial rewards for meeting the goals and fees for missing them.
The US, after a high-profile intervention by former President Donald Trump in October 2025, convinced a majority of voting nations to postpone the NZF’s adoption for a year. Ralph Regenvanu, climate minister for Vanuatu, called the delay “unacceptable” given the urgency of climate change. Em Fenton, senior director of climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, warned that alternative proposals risk diverting attention from the hard-fought multilateral compromise.
Five proposals on the table
Governments will discuss five proposals submitted before next week’s meeting. The most ambitious comes from Tuvalu, which has proposed a levy on the entirety of a ship’s emissions rather than just those above a certain level, as the NZF envisions. Tuvalu’s transport minister Simon Kofe described the NZF as disappointing and not ambitious enough, prompting six Pacific countries to abstain in the April vote.
| Proposal | Key Feature | Emissions Impact | Alignment with 2030/2040 Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZF | Financial rewards and fees | Not enough to meet targets | No |
| Tuvalu | Levy on all emissions | Meets 20% 2030 & 70% 2040 | Yes |
| Brazil | Tweak framework for short-term ease | Higher cumulative emissions | No |
| Liberia | Weakened targets, carbon trading | At most 50% cut by 2050 | No |
| Japan | Shipowners control fee allocation | No central mechanism for green incentives | No |
The Liberian proposal, backed by the US and Saudi Arabia, would weaken emissions-reduction targets and replace the NZF’s fees with a carbon-trading system. Expert analysis from the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology (IMarEST) estimates that the proposal would cut the industry’s emissions by only half by 2050, far short of the 2023-agreed goal of net zero “close to 2050”. The plan would also eliminate the Net Zero Fund, reducing incentives for green fuels and a fairer transition for poorer nations.
Pacific push for ambition
Pacific nations, led by Tuvalu, argue that the NZF must increase ambition. John Kautoke, advisor to 6PAC+, said the NZF “cannot diminish its already inadequate ambition. If anything, the NZF must increase in ambition if we are going to renegotiate its parameters.” IMarEST’s analysis shows that only Tuvalu’s proposal would meet the 20% 2008-2030 and 70% 2040 targets.
Japan’s shipowner-friendly tweak
Japan’s late proposal would allow shipowners to decide how fees for exceeding emission thresholds are spent. University College London professor Tristan Smith criticized the change, noting that it would remove a central mechanism to incentivise investments in clean fuels. Smith argued that while the proposal might appeal to shipowners, it would undermine broader just-transition projects benefiting marine workers and developing countries.
Next steps and potential outcomes
Governments are expected to announce their preferred proposals next week. A final round of talks will run from November 23-27, followed by a potential final round from November 30-December 4. A new framework could be adopted if two-thirds of countries that are signatories to the Marpol Annex VI vote in favour, as they did in April 2025. The US and its allies are also attempting to change the rules to make the next stage more difficult.
For detailed statistics on shipping emissions, see our stats page. The latest IMO meeting minutes are available in the standings section.
