England's trees threatened by El Niño winds
Experts warn high winds from a strong El Niño could cause widespread tree mortality in England, as species are already weakened by record heat and drought.
High winds forecast for this autumn could prove deadly for England's trees, which are already severely weakened by prolonged heat and drought. Experts from Kew Gardens and the Arboricultural Association warn that a powerful El Niño event may push many stressed trees to the point of failure, with a significant amount of tree loss expected.
This summer's record-breaking heatwaves across Europe have left much of the English countryside brown. Many trees are entering an early autumn, wilting and shedding leaves prematurely to cope with the extreme conditions. Kevin Martin, head of tree collections at Kew Gardens, states that trees have not grown normally this year. They have become less flexible and more brittle.
The UK's Met Office expects the developing El Niño over the Pacific will be the strongest in over a century. It is expected to bring increased rainfall and storms to the UK this autumn. Martin explains that this pattern of dry weather followed by heavy rain can undermine soil structure, leading to root death. He said he is really worried about this autumn.
Simon Richmond, a technical officer at the Arboricultural Association, notes that while trees are resilient to single years of bad weather, the danger lies in a prolonged pattern. Climate change makes repeated extreme events more likely.
The stress has been so severe that some common species could disappear from familiar settings. Martin fears specific losses. The impact is widespread, but ancient oaks are dying disproportionately in the hot, dry weather.
What made 2026 unprecedented was a spring heatwave, with May temperatures hitting 35C - the hottest ever recorded. Martin observed that the whole growing season this year has been under stress and that he does not think we have ever experienced environmental impact like this before.
The full consequences of this year's weather may not be apparent for two to three years. However, the outlook is dire. After the 2022 heatwave, Kew Gardens lost more than 400 trees to heat and drought. Martin believes the 2026 impact will be significantly worse.
Martin stated that from what he can see from the landscape at Kew, we are going to see a lot more mortality than what we saw in 2022. Many trees that barely survived 2022 will not make it through this year.
Marcus Lindner, a principal scientist at the European Forest Institute, warns that repeated years of extreme weather could push species past their limits. Even drought-tolerant species are adapted only to a certain level of stress. He concluded that almost all tree species are at risk from the changing climate.
