Labour risks losing up to 50 seats to Greens over North Sea drilling approval
Internal Green party research suggests Labour could lose dozens of seats at the next election if the government approves new North Sea oil and gas drilling, as voters demand stronger climate action.
Labour could face significant losses to the Green party in the next election if the government approves new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, according to internal Green party research shared with the Guardian. The analysis highlights that up to 50 Labour-held seats, including those of key figures like Louise Haigh, could be at risk if urgent climate action is not prioritized.
## Voters demand bold climate action
The research indicates that voters in crucial Labour-Green battleground constituencies are calling for more aggressive measures to combat the climate crisis. This comes amid record heatwaves, devastating wildfires, and severe droughts in the UK this summer. Many voters believe Labour MPs will face consequences if their demands for stronger climate policies are not met.
Rachel Millward, deputy leader of the Green party, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that voters are dissatisfied with the government's lack of action on climate change. She pointed out that the data clearly shows voters want more from their government and are opposed to any backtracking on climate commitments.
## Labour's stance on North Sea drilling
Labour has dismissed the Green party's claims, noting that the number of seats the Greens are projected to win has decreased since Andy Burnham took office. Burnham has been cautious about addressing the climate crisis and has indicated a "pragmatic" approach to oil and gas, stating that decisions on new drilling will be made "in due course."
Many Labour MPs are concerned about the potential backlash from voters alarmed by the recent environmental crises, including the worst drought since 1976 and climate-related food inflation. They argue that new drilling in the North Sea will not improve energy security or lower bills but will instead benefit oil firms, which have already seen record profits this year.
## Green party's opposition to new drilling
The Green party has been vocal in its opposition to new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, particularly for projects like the Jackdaw gasfield and the Rosebank oilfield. A decision on these projects is expected in the coming weeks, and the Greens warn of a potential surge in defectors from Labour if the projects are approved.
Millward criticized the government's approach, stating that the current crisis requires bold action rather than appeasing figures like Donald Trump on North Sea drilling. The Green party's research identified 50 Labour-held seats that require the smallest swing to be taken by the Greens. Constituency-level polling by Friends of the Earth in October last year showed that more than 50% of voters in these battlegrounds support faster climate action, with some constituencies showing over two-thirds in favor.
## Labour's response and expert analysis
A Labour source dismissed the Green party's findings as "utter fantasy," asserting that Labour is delivering on lower bills, energy security, and good jobs. Luke Tryl, from the polling group More in Common, warned that urgent action on climate change is crucial for maintaining Labour's coalition of voters. He suggested that approving individual licences in the North Sea might not trigger a Green surge as long as voters believe Labour is sticking to its net zero pledges.
Tryl added that a pragmatic approach balancing progress towards net zero with cost-of-living concerns is likely the best way for Labour to maintain unity within its coalition.
