UN aquaculture plan risks 46% of wild fish
A UN plan to boost farmed fish production by 75% by 2040 could see nearly half the global wild fish catch ground into feed, a report warns, threatening
Nearly half of the world's wild fish catch could be diverted to feed farmed fish under United Nations expansion plans, a new analysis finds. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization aims to increase aquaculture production by 75% by 2040 as part of its 'blue transformation' agenda to improve global food security.
An investigation by the Changing Markets Foundation, however, warns this growth could pull tens of millions of tonnes of fish from oceans annually. The report states aquaculture already supplies over half of all aquatic animals consumed worldwide, with carnivorous farmed species like salmon and shrimp commonly fed fishmeal and fish oil made from wild-caught fish like anchovies and sardines.
Modelling reveals potential wild fish demand
Research modelling conducted with the University of British Columbia projects that, if current industry trends continue, up to 34.6 million tonnes of wild fish could be caught for farmed species feed each year by 2040. The FAO has not specified which farming systems should deliver its 75% growth target.
The Changing Markets Foundation modelled several pathways. Under a scenario weighted towards feed-intensive species like salmon and shrimp, demand for wild fish could reach 41.4 million tonnes. This amount is equivalent to 46% of the total global wild fish catch recorded in 2020.
Muhammed Oyinlola, an aquatic ecologist at the University of British Columbia, said the outcome is not fixed. 'Our modelling shows that the outcome is not inevitable. A more diversified option favours growth in lower-input species, while ambiguity leaves the door open to growth that threatens communities, fisheries and the climate,' he said. The scale of impact depends heavily on which species and production systems are expanded.
Human rights and food security concerns
The report highlights significant food security repercussions, particularly in West Africa. It cites a 2021 Changing Markets Foundation investigation which estimated that enough fish to feed 33 million people across the region is turned into animal and aquaculture feed each year.
In Senegal, a major centre for fishmeal production, factories compete with local communities for the same fish. Annual fish consumption per person in Senegal fell by more than 10 kilograms between 1999 and 2019. Tara Ganesh, a senior campaigner at Changing Markets Foundation, outlined the human cost. 'A large share of those fish come from much poorer communities where that fish is an essential source of nutrition, but also really essential for the livelihoods of coastal communities and artisanal fishers,' she said. Women who process and sell fish also risk losing income.
These concerns were echoed in a report to the UN Human Rights Council in June. UN special rapporteur on climate change Elisa Morgera said using nutritionally valuable fish for fishmeal raises 'serious human rights concerns' by potentially reducing access to food.
Calls for policy safeguards
The Changing Markets Foundation report criticises the FAO's approach, noting that neither its roadmap nor its sustainable aquaculture guidelines specify how the growth target should be met. It also says safeguards addressing the nutritional effects of aquaculture were removed from successive draft guidelines without explanation.
The foundation points to a December 2023 FAO workshop in Ghana, organised with an industry coalition, as an example of community concerns being sidelined. Small-scale fisheries representatives called for sardinella fish to be reserved for direct human consumption and for halting fishmeal factory expansion. West African participants later said the official workshop account did not reflect broad opposition among African groups to turning edible wild fish into feed.
The foundation argues the FAO's target could be met while keeping demand for wild fish below 2020 levels. This would require reducing fishmeal use and directing growth towards species needing fewer marine ingredients. Ganesh stressed the need for urgent policy change. 'There is an urgent need for safeguards in the FAO's policy to explicitly preserve wild fish for human consumption,' she said. She called the current model absurd, stating it represents 'a net loss of fish, a net loss of nutrition.'
The FAO was approached for comment by the source.
