Europe faces major cereal losses after summer heatwave

Farmers across Europe are dealing with the impact of a summer marked by extreme heat, drought and wildfires worsened by climate change. Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of extreme weather events, creating greater volatility for food producers. This summer resulted in shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region. Global food prices are at their highest level since early 2023 due to heatwaves and energy price dynamics, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also influenced agricultural outputs this year.

Most EU countries expect declines in cereal production this year. France is projected to see the largest drop, with cereal production expected to fall by almost 8 megatonnes in 2026 compared to 2025. Germany is due to see the second-largest losses, dropping by almost 4 megatonnes compared to 2025. Most other European countries, aside from Bulgaria, are also expected to record production losses. Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, noted that many areas in Germany and Austria have been hit hard by a long-lasting dry period combined with record-high heatwaves, resulting in dry grassland for animals and lower maize yields, which is a key fodder crop for livestock.

Crop yields are expected to be significantly reduced across western and central Europe. The EU Joint Research Centre bulletin states that heat and lack of water have substantially worsened crop expectations, with local crop failures likely in France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary. Yields of cereal grains are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026. Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are projected to see the largest declines, with yields dropping by more than one tonne per hectare compared to 2025. Irrigated crops performed well in Portugal, the country with the largest yield increases, while rain-fed crops showed growing signs of heat stress.

The record June heatwave contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses across Europe. The intense June heat in western Europe would have been virtually impossible 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study, and was the region’s hottest June on record. The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, estimating lost supply by multiplying changes in grain tonnes between those months by harvest delivery prices in 28 European countries. Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue. Extreme heat is also expected to reduce the EU’s gross domestic product by around 1% this year, or around €180bn, according to analysis from Triodos Bank.

In the UK, current trends suggest the worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984. Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. Even if conditions improve, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record, meaning four of the five worst UK harvests have occurred in the past decade. Consumers may see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets. Other crops like berries have grown successfully in the heat, but there are fears this could dip later as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave.

France has been acutely affected by the extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures above 40C. As the EU’s largest agricultural producer, France has seen many crops impacted by heat, drought and wildfires. Maize production is set to drop by more than one-third year-on-year, which could result in the lowest level since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service. Record-early grape harvests have been reported in various parts of France since mid-July, with some grapes smaller and less juicy, potentially yielding less wine.

Overall in the EU, cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission. Just one year in the past decade, 2024, recorded lower production levels. Maize production is projected to drop by 13% to 52 megatonnes, the lowest level in the EU since 2007.